By Peter Ryan
THE MOST sensible words uttered in relation to number one draft pick Jonathon Patton in the past week might have come from his mother.
"This is the easy part at the moment. He hasn't even played yet," Belinda Patton said in a pre-game radio interview before her son made his AFL debut against Richmond last weekend.
"I think the harder part is a little bit down the track. I don't think he is putting too much expectation on himself today, but that will come."
Little over an hour later, her strapping son took two contested marks within a minute and drew this commentary on Fox Footy from Hawthorn champion Jason Dunstall: "He is not your normal 18 or 19-year-old coming into the game. He is built like a man and he plays like a man."
From that moment on, the Patton hype meter was set to high, and someone who sounded like a very normal 19-year-old off the field - if you listened to his mum at least - had announced his arrival.
Since then, Patton has been compared to a young Jonathan Brown, while the Giants' forward set-up of Patton and Jeremy Cameron is, to some, the next incarnation of Matthew Lloyd and Scott Lucas.
However, as Patton takes to the MCG for Greater Western Sydney for the first time on Sunday alongside two other number one draft picks, teammate Tom Scully and Melbourne's Jack Watts (who plays his 50th game), caution is needed.
It's worth remembering the unavoidable on and off-field tests Patton will need to pass if he wants to progress from serious promise to star.
Neither size, nor one clean mark, nor the status of being rated the best 18-year-old in the country at one point, or what he showed on debut, guarantees success.
A back-of-the-envelope list detailing possible hurdles AFL draft picks face on the way to realising their youthful talent shows just how resilient each draft pick needs to be.
They face:
- Opposition analysis and tactics to counter their influence
- A step up from under 18 to seniors
- Injury
- Changing dynamics with friends, families
- Performing amid crisis, scrutiny and when personal issues (good or bad) intervene
- Adulation and hangers-on
- Coping with training, lifestyle changes (diet etc)
- Living under a code of conduct and as a role model
- Time management
- From love of game to professional game
- Living away from home (which can be a positive or a negative)
- Working on weaknesses, improving strengths
- New training loads and body shape
- Media interviews, photos, self-image
- Media and public analysis, praise and criticism
- Junior star to playing a role
While such a list applies to all players, the spotlight inevitably falls on how the number one pick copes - and this year, that means Patton.
As the 21-year-old Watts said in February: "My performance probably gets dissected more heavily than most and that is fine. I'm used to that by now, that is for sure."
That reality makes the support around Patton so critical.
Luckily, he has experienced coaches and a good sounding board in Scully to guide him.
Scully revealed this week that he spoke quite regularly to coach Dean Bailey when both were at Melbourne about external expectation.
"He basically told me that I'd be judged on what I did internally and that was all I needed to worry about," Scully said.
Scully gives Patton similar advice.
The former Melbourne onballer has never compared his development with others, returning to the basics at every opportunity.
"I just worried about what I could do to become a good player and the things I needed to do to become better," Scully said.
Being surrounded by a bunch of talented youngsters in a team yet to face the external pressure to win might shield Patton a bit, suggests Carlton star and 2005 No.1 pick Marc Murphy.
But if Murphy's experience is any guide, no-one is immune from the pressure players put on themselves to deliver.
Murphy said many people questioned his kicking style during the first part of his career, as he used to kick the ball around his body and try to drill passes.
"I got a bit of critical analysis of trying to do that too much," Murphy said.
Murphy soon realised there were many parts of his game he needed to improve.
"It wasn't just because I was hearing it from the media that I needed to change it up," Murphy said.
It was his new reality as an AFL player.
Patton has had to show patience already. He had hip operations as a junior, and a knee problem emerged when he was drafted. However, soon after his knee was operated on in Sweden, Patton's prospects and outlook improved. His progress since has been positive, and his club has managed him sensibly. Giants coach Kevin Sheedy nearly took him off at three-quarter time last week to look after his welfare.
Sheedy senses Patton has a lot to look forward to, but he would know better than most there will be peaks and troughs along the way.
It's why English playwright Noel Coward once wrote that the secret of success is the ability to survive failure, and part of what makes watching such players emerge so fascinating.
Patton obviously comes from sturdy stock, and he's unlikely to get carried away with one performance.
"They know themselves how they're going. [It] just remains to be seen how he progresses over the rest of the season," Belinda Patton said.
Additional reporting by James Dampney